Cheatsheet: $AUPH | Aurinia
We’re more than a year out since the FDA approved Canadian biotech Aurinia’s oral therapy LUPKYNIS (voclosporin) for lupus nephritis, which affects ~33% of some 200-300K Americans that have systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). It’s been a wild ride since then, and we’re sure you too are numb to all the swirling buyout rumors. We quickly put together something fun to recap what’s been up.
Next Date to Watch:
Monday Feb 28 Q4 call, 8:30am EST. Source
The Exec Memo:
Some things we like
Both a nephrology and rheumatology drug (more prescriptions/awareness)
Strong patent game - also no disputes we’re aware of
Last year’s raise gives a more viable runway and is behind us this year - Nov ATM raise was a strategic and smart move
Believe they do GAAP accounting now (more streamlined M&A financials)
Think omicron is probably not as big of a headwind as people think
Some things we don’t like
Will need a commercial partner (parent) for meaningful revenue - $1B+ peak sales is hard & long to build from here (even if CEO gives ~$200M guidance on Monday)
Will likely remain US-centric market (LN disproportionately affects Americans), global footprint won’t be meaningfully much larger; eyes will on domestic prescriptions
Even though less efficacious, Benlysta (current SOC) has a strong presence with its price and wide availability (won’t be as easy or fast for Lupkynis to outright conquer in LN market as some think)
Longer $AUPH runs alone, the closer the next raise comes around the corner
Hiring page link
Some analyst reports:
Wait what’s Aurinia and LUPKYNIS?
An excellent longer read by @AdamSinger
Too many buyout rumors - who are the suitors again?
In short: $GSK, $AZN, $BIIB, $NVS, $BMY have all been floated around…
Every buyout rumor from 2021, h/t to @RuniteDragon
More Jan 2022 buyout rumors
STAT news reports Goldman helping Biogen $BIIB assess buyout targets given Aduhelm fiasco; targets included Biohaven $BHVN, Amylyx $AMLX, and Aurinia.
Great thread with musings on $BIIB x $AUPH by @PermissionTI:
Speculation: High OI Activity for April OOM Calls (as of Feb 25)
Latest Q4 2021 13Fs - Top 25 Adds - virtually no bio-funds here
“But where are the healthcare funds?”
You could argue many were in survival and capital preservation mode in Q4 during the (still ongoing) $XBI onslaught.
Top 25 sells below - notably NEA, Baker, Vivo
Some warrant prices
CEO Peter Greenleaf’s options from 2021
Note: above not comprehensive, mainly was curious about exercise prices
Random (just for fun):
Searches for “AURINIA” in past 12 months
What’s in NJ?