We’re more than a year out since the FDA approved Canadian biotech Aurinia’s oral therapy LUPKYNIS (voclosporin) for lupus nephritis, which affects ~33% of some 200-300K Americans that have systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). It’s been a wild ride since then, and we’re sure you too are numb to all the swirling buyout rumors. We quickly put together something fun to recap what’s been up.

Next Date to Watch:

Monday Feb 28 Q4 call, 8:30am EST. Source

The Exec Memo:

• Approved in January 2021

• A2 studies released Dec 9

• Composition of matter patent extension in US/EU/JP until 2027 Oct

• Method of use protection until 2037 Dec

• Jan 2022 slides

• SVB Leerink 2022 GHC Call (from 2/16)

Some things we like

• Both a nephrology and rheumatology drug (more prescriptions/awareness)

• Strong patent game - also no disputes we’re aware of

• Last year’s raise gives a more viable runway and is behind us this year - Nov ATM raise was a strategic and smart move

• Believe they do GAAP accounting now (more streamlined M&A financials)

• Think omicron is probably not as big of a headwind as people think

Some things we don’t like

• Will need a commercial partner (parent) for meaningful revenue - $1B+ peak sales is hard & long to build from here (even if CEO gives ~$200M guidance on Monday)

• Will likely remain US-centric market (LN disproportionately affects Americans), global footprint won’t be meaningfully much larger; eyes will on domestic prescriptions

• Even though less efficacious, Benlysta (current SOC) has a strong presence with its price and wide availability (won’t be as easy or fast for Lupkynis to outright conquer in LN market as some think)

• Longer $AUPH runs alone, the closer the next raise comes around the corner

Other:

• Hiring page link

Some analyst reports:

• Here

• Here

• Here

• and Here

Wait what’s Aurinia and LUPKYNIS?

An excellent longer read by @AdamSinger

Hot Takes

Aurinia: a hot, battleground biotech with a bright future

About $AUPH: changing the course of autoimmune disease In the words of the Aurinia team: Aurinia exists to make a difference. Our mission is to transform people’s lives by delivering therapeutics that change the course of autoimmune disease. From the earliest days of the company, we’ve applied a creative, thoughtful and responsible approach to developing …

Read more

a year ago · 3 likes · Adam Singer

Too many buyout rumors - who are the suitors again?

In short: $GSK, $AZN, $BIIB, $NVS, $BMY have all been floated around…

Every buyout rumor from 2021, h/t to @RuniteDragon

More Jan 2022 buyout rumors

STAT news reports Goldman helping Biogen $BIIB assess buyout targets given Aduhelm fiasco; targets included Biohaven $BHVN, Amylyx $AMLX, and Aurinia.

Non-paywall here

Great thread with musings on $BIIB x $AUPH by @PermissionTI:

Persimmon Tree Investments @PersimmonTI

$AUPH — $BIIB A Story of Need & Redemption “Time, and pressure, Andy” said Red. That’s what it takes to create a diamond. Will LUPKYNIS prove to be that diamond in the rough for $BIIB? We know there’s pressure, and the time is always ticking. The opportunity? Let’ see:

12:36 AM ∙ Feb 15, 2022

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Speculation: High OI Activity for April OOM Calls (as of Feb 25)

Latest Q4 2021 13Fs - Top 25 Adds - virtually no bio-funds here

“But where are the healthcare funds?”
You could argue many were in survival and capital preservation mode in Q4 during the (still ongoing) $XBI onslaught.

Top 25 sells below - notably NEA, Baker, Vivo

Some warrant prices

CEO Peter Greenleaf’s options from 2021

Note: above not comprehensive, mainly was curious about exercise prices

Random (just for fun):

Searches for “AURINIA” in past 12 months

What’s in NJ?

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